Navigating Uncertainty: Fostering Innovation in Times of Change
Research-Based Strategies for Surviving Ambiguity
The past few years have brought unprecedented levels of uncertainty into all of our lives. Since 2020 we had to deal with a life threatening new virus, lockdowns, layoffs, wars, climate change… As UX professionals, we are faced with the challenges of planning and leading teams through uncertain times. In this article, we will examine the psychology of uncertainty, its effects, and research-backed strategies to help us manage uncertainty for themselves and their teams. This is based on research I did to help me identify ways to support my team during these uncertain times.
The Nature of Uncertainty
Uncertainty can be defined as a state of having limited knowledge about the present, future, or past (Hogg, 2007). By the time we reach adulthood we’re all familiar with it. It is an unavoidable part of life, but the current global climate has made it especially salient. Previously, it was easier to ignore it or pretend it’s not there… Currently, our plans for the future feel tenuous, and we lack clarity on when things might return to “normal.” This type of uncertainty creates psychological stress as we are evolutionarily wired to prefer predictability and routine (Proulx & Heine, 2006).
Uncertainty affects us not just individually but organisationally. Leaders must make decisions despite unpredictable and highly volatile conditions. Teams cannot reliably plan long-term roadmaps. The way forward feels perpetually unclear. In a team or company level this can result in increased anxiety, decreased motivation, and poorer performance.
Several studies have shown that high uncertainty leads to increased stress and anxiety among employees. For example, a study by Saleem and colleagues (2021) found that uncertainty was positively correlated with anxiety in the workplace. Other studies have shown that uncertainty is linked to lower motivation levels, as employees feel less inspired and engaged when the future feels unclear (Mittal and Ross, 1998). A study by Feinberg and Aiello (2010) demonstrated that participants assigned to uncertain conditions performed worse on tasks related to attention and productivity compared to controls. Elevated anxiety and lowered motivation can result in measurably poorer individual and team performance at times of uncertainty. Leaders should be aware of these potential negative effects and employ strategies to counter them. As UX professionals in leadership or management positions, we must find ways to steer ourselves and our teams through the fog.
Reframing Uncertainty
While uncertainty undeniably introduces challenges, research shows it can also spur creativity, open-mindedness, and growth. People who view uncertainty as a positive perform better in uncertain conditions than those who view it negatively. A study by Sorrentino and Roney (1986) divided participants into "uncertainty-oriented" (positive view) and "certainty-oriented" (negative view) groups based on a scale measuring attitudes toward uncertainty. Uncertainty-oriented individuals are relatively comfortable dealing with uncertainty and strive to resolve it. They see uncertainty as a chance to exercise creativity, which helps them adapt better. When placed in an uncertain scenario with unclear rules and goals, the uncertainty-oriented group exhibited greater task persistence, flexibility, and ultimately better performance. Seeing uncertainty as a chance to exercise creativity, helped them adapt better. On the other hand, certainty-oriented individuals prefer the familiar or the known and are more likely to avoid uncertainty. They reacted with more stress and rigid thinking when placed in an uncertain scenario.
These findings highlight that while uncertainty can introduce challenges, it can also be a catalyst for creativity and growth when viewed positively. It underscores the importance of mindset in dealing with uncertain situations.
Reframing uncertainty as an opportunity rather than a threat can empower innovation. When conditions are constantly changing, we must continually adapt. This fosters flexibility and creative problem-solving. When conditions are uncertain, it’s easier to get over outdated assumptions that may have previously constrained us. Cognitive diversity is key for innovation, and uncertainty pushes teams to bring new, diverse perspectives rather than sticking with comfortable, homogenous views. This fosters more creative ideation as teams challenge preconceived notions and build on each other's diverse views rather than remaining boxed in by conventional thinking.
We can also reframe uncertainty as a catalyst for personal growth. Feeling in control is comforting, but control is often an illusion. Accepting uncertainty can help us let go of this need for control and develop our adaptability. It can also connect us to others as we realise we are all in this together. Wong (2008) found that reflecting on uncertainty and one's own mortality could foster greater compassion toward others. Contemplating the shared human experience of facing an unknown future can break down interpersonal barriers. Teams can find unexpected connection and meaning when they open up about uncertainties we all share but rarely discuss at work. Vulnerable conversations forge deeper bonds.
Enough with the theory. What does this mean for our everyday lives as UX professionals?
When under uncertainty, it’s easier to get rid out our preexisting assumptions and limitations and get more creative. Potentially, take more risks and innovate more.
Honesty and open discussion with our colleagues or direct reports can help us navigate uncertainty. We’re in this together.
Strategies for Managing Uncertainty
While reframing uncertainty is important, we must also employ strategies to stay grounded in uncertain times. Research points to several effective approaches we can adopt:
Focus on what you can control. Guide teams to focus their efforts on the challenges directly within their sphere of influence rather than worrying about vague future issues. Kotter and Schlesinger (2008) found that during periods of organisational change, clearly communicating elements that teams could actively control improved motivation and reduced uncertainty-associated stress. Leaders should redirect teams away from broad uncertainties they cannot influence, like when a crisis will end. Instead, guide them to channel energy into addressing specific near-term challenges within their scope, like adapting processes or workflows. This can help them maintain focus and solve immediate problems.
Embrace experimentation. In unpredictable conditions, remain open to trying new approaches and changing course if things aren’t working. Neubert et al. (2013) found that leaders who model willingness to experiment motivate teams to push past old ways of doing things that may no longer work. This flexibility and continuous adaptation is crucial when conditions are in flux.
Celebrate small wins. Recognise any progress made in times of uncertainty. Small gains build team morale and a sense of momentum. Amabile and Kramer's (2011) progress principle highlights the importance of "small wins" amid large projects full of uncertainties. Recognising incremental progress on challenging goals provides reassurance that the team is moving forward despite ambiguity. This boosts motivation, energy, and persistence essential for navigating uncertainty.
Foster psychological safety. Psychological safety is key for job performance (Frazier et al., 2017) independent of uncertainty. Create an environment where people feel safe to be vulnerable and know they will not be punished for mistakes.
Communicate transparently. Be honest about the challenges and the unknowns. Clearly explain the rationale behind decisions. Reduce uncertainty where possible.
Remind people of organisational purpose. Connecting to a higher shared mission helps teams stay focused when details are unclear. Research by Grant (2012) found that teams maintain engagement best when they have clarity on their core purpose. Even when specific plans and short-term goals feel tenuous, a shared understanding of why the team's work matters anchors them. If you’re leading a team, you should frequently revisit and reinforce this higher mission to provide direction amid uncertainty.
Consider cultural and individual factors. We don’t all have the same tolerance for ambiguity. Factors such as personality and culture can affect how we cope with uncertainty. Research has that in environments where uncertainty is less tolerated (high uncertainty avoidance), clear and inspirational leadership is even more crucial for maintaining motivation and fostering innovation (Watts et al., 2020)
By reframing uncertainty and employing research-backed strategies, we can empower themselves and our teams to not just survive but thrive in times of turbulence and ambiguity. While the way forward may not always be clear, we can steer our organisations with purpose, adaptability, and resilience.
What do you do in times of uncertainty? Any tips or advice? Please share in the comments.
Insightful and timely!